U.S. Jobless Claims Spike to Post-COVID High Amid Mixed Labor Signals

Initial U.S. unemployment claims surged to 44,000 last week, marking the highest level since the pandemic era. The figure blindsided economists, surpassing all but one forecast in Bloomberg’s survey. This follows a prior week’s three-year low—a dip attributed to Thanksgiving distortions and government furloughs.

Corporate layoffs are gaining momentum. PepsiCo and HP joined the growing list of employers trimming headcount, with October recording the highest job cuts since Q1 2023. Pantheon Macroeconomics warns of accelerating workforce reductions, though High Frequency Economics counters that claims remain subdued historically.

Navy Federal Credit Union’s Heather Long urges perspective: the four-week moving average edged up only marginally to 216,750, suggesting holiday volatility rather than structural weakness. Unadjusted data reveals a sharper story—claims jumped 115,000, driven by populous states like California and Texas. Fed Chair Powell’s recent labor market cautions now carry renewed weight.